NFL Pick em Pool Picks Week 3 Expert tips on favorites upsets to consider

NFL Pick em Pool Picks Week 3 Expert tips on favorites upsets to consider

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Last week featured only a small handful of upsets that really wreaked havoc in NFL pick 'em pools, but several to s-up games still left many with records hovering around .500. The Week 3 slate features more lopsided-looking matchups, at least on paper, so your pick strategy for the smaller number of closer contests may be the driving factor in your Week 3 pool standings if the big favorites all win out.As always, in this post, we highlight five Week 3 picks that can help you move up the standings in your 2023 pick 'em or confidence pool.This analysis is brought to you by , the only site that harne ses the power of algorithms to maximize your edge in football pick'em contests. Since 2014, 73 percent of PoolGenius subscribers win a season or weekly prize in a football pick em pool each year.Free Week 3 NFL Pick 'em Pool PicksBefore we dive into the analysis, PoolGenius has some special offers for Sporting News readers, including up to 55 percent off football subscriptions and a free all-acce s trial.EXPERT PICKS: FREE TRIAL: SEASON DISCOUNTS: How we identify NFL Week 3 value picks To increase your edge in football picks pools, making good predictions is only part of the battle. (It's also not particularly difficult because point spreads provide a quick and accurate a se sment of each team's chance to win.)Because you only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents mi s, you also need to forecast pick popularity (i.e. how you expect your opponents to pick each game). Once you have an understanding of each team's win odds and expected pick popularity, two tactics should yield long-term succe s in football pick 'em pools:Look for unpopular picks that might be worth an educated gambleAvoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the riskThe picks below provide some of the best opportunities Jerry Rice Jersey to differentiate your Week 3 picks from your contest opponents by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pool, you almost certainly shouldn't pick of them (the upset picks, specifically) because it would be too risky overall, but consider this list as your starting point for good Week 3 pick ideas.(To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick 'em pool should influence the picks you make, read our free articles about , or just use our Football Pick 'em Picks product to get pick recommendations for your pool.)Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our .L.A. Rams at Cincinnati BengalsPoint Spread:+1.5Pick Popularity:37%Category:Unpopular to s-up pickThings went from bad to worse for Cincinnati, as QB Joe Burrow aggravated his calf injury that kept him out all preseason. The point spread in this game currently reflects that Burrow is unlikely to play, but the public is still picking the Bengals more often.After two weeks, the underdog Rams are second in the NFL in total yards while the Bengals are dead last. If Burrow can't go, backup Jake Browning, who had never thrown a pa s in an NFL game until this year, will get the start. Cincinnati also released QB Trevor Siemian after an underwhelming preseason while Burrow was out and could add him back.Either way, you are potentially getting a Bengals offense that has struggled with an injured Burrow and could be without him, going against a team that has been pretty good on offense that the public is underrating.WEEK 3 DFS LINEUPS: | Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota VikingsPoint Spread:Pick ' John Taylor Jersey emPick Popularity:39%Category:Unpopular to s-up pickThe Chargers travel to Minnesota for a game between two teams off to disappointing starts. Both teams rank highly in total offense and scoring but have failed on the defensive end. The Vikings have also struggled to run the ball so far (2.7 yards per carry), which has been a relative weakne s for the Chargers defense.These are the types of games where your fate in pick 'em pools is largely up to the pool gods. It's a coin flip, so picking the le s popular team means you'll gain ground on over 60 percent of your pool if they win (or vice versa). Early in the season, shoot for the higher-leverage outcome and hope that you hit more of them than you mi s.FREE TRIAL: Carolina Panthers at Seattle SeahawksPoint Spread: +5.5Pick Popularity:4%Category: Value gamble in weekly prize poolsThis potential pick is not for the faint of heart -- and it's certainly not appropriate for a lot of pick 'em contest types -- but if you are playing in a larger contest with only weekly prizes, taking a chance on a pick like Carolina is the kind of move you have to consider.The Panthers' offense has struggled in the first two games under QB Bryce Young, but the defense has been really good and the running game has been productive. Just as important, Carolina's offense is in a "get-better" spot against a defense that ranks 30th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, and 30th in net yards per pa s allowed so far this year.Only four percent of the public is picking the Panthers, which is ridiculously low and similar to how frequently entries are picking Week 3 upsets by teams like Arizona, Houston, and Indianapolis in matchups where the underdog odds are much longer. You can create a lot of potential leverage in a big pool by taking a team with better than a one-in-three chance of winning, that almost nobody else is picking.WEEK 3 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS: | | | | | Buffalo Bills at Washington CommandersPoint Spread: -6.5Popularity:87%Category: Large favorite at reasonable valueThe Bills are a case of a larger favorite coming at a reasonable value price this week because of how the public is picking other big favorites. Buffalo is the sixth-largest favorite but just ninth in pick popularity this week. Multiple teams with win odds similar to or just below Buffalo have pick popularity above 96 percent this week, including Seattle and Miami.That means that while most pick 'em entries are picking the Bills, they are also about three times more likely to pick a Washington upset than other similar underdogs. So, if you want to pick a big upset this week, you're getting relatively poor fade-the-public value here.The Commanders have started 2-0 following close wins over Arizona and Denver, but they take a step up in cla s against a Buffalo team that bounced back in a big way after a turnover-driven lo s in Week 1. Stick with the favorite in this one.MORE POOLGENIUS: Cleveland Browns vs. Tenne see TitansPoint Spread:-3.5Popularity:59%Category: Value favoriteThe Browns are coming off a Monday Night lo s where QB Deshaun Watson looked bad (again) and they lost RB Nick Chubb (knee) for the season. They are still favored at home against the Titans by just over a field goal.The public is Keena Turner Jersey clearly not a big fan of Cleveland. As a comparison, the other favorite with a similar Week 3 point spread, Detroit, is at 82-percent pick popularity (vs. le s than 60 percent for Cleveland), and there are three to s-up games where a smaller favorite has similar popularity to Cleveland.So, if you think you're smarter than the betting markets, you can take a risk here. Otherwise, sticking with the Browns makes more sense.Get All Our Week 3 NFL Picks Maximizing your edge in football pick 'em contests requires a lot of data, math, and time. Besides having to collect and analyze information like win odds and pick popularity, you need to understand the optimal level of risk to take with your Week 3 picks, based on the characteristics of your pool(s). That's why PoolGenius built the product.It's the only product that provides weekly pick recommendations customized for your NFL or college football pick 'em pool, using algorithms that identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win. It also supports game-winner and point spread pools, confidence pools, Pick X pools, and pools with season and/or weekly prizes.Try it out using the links below, and good luck in your pick 'em contest(s) in Week 3!EXPERT PICKS: FREE TRIAL: SEASON DISCOUNTS:
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